Probable Outcomes of the World Chess Championship

We previously estimated Magnus Carlsen’s win chances to be 78.8% of winning outright, and 83.7% after tie-break. Here we break that analysis down into looking at the probabilities of each outcome of the match.

The expected match outcome distribution of the World Chess Championships before the first game.

The expected match outcome distribution of the World Chess Championships before the first game.

As shown, there is a very small chance that Magnus Carlsen will win the match after the minimum amount of games possible. However, the most likely scenario is that he will win it after 10 or 11 games. That would be the same as he did last year, when he won the match in 10 games.

These outcomes are estimated based on each player’s rating, and we will re-run the simulation to find the win expectations following each game.

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5 Responses to Probable Outcomes of the World Chess Championship

  1. Pingback: Magnus Carlsen’s Probability of Defending the World Chess Championship Crown | Analytic Minds

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