Win Probabilities After Game 1

Game 1 of the World Chess Championships ended in a draw. What does that have to say for the each player’s win chances? Not much. The chances of a tie-break has increased, and it’s more likely that the game will last longer, but otherwise it remains the same. Before the game Magnus Carlsen’s probability of winning was 83.6%, now it is 82.6%.

Expected match win following the draw in game 1.

Expected match win following the draw in game 1.

For this simulation, we have not changed the initial assumptions. That means that we haven’t adjusted for the new live rating, nor for the fact that Magnus Carlsen now has 6 games with white against Anand’s 5.

This entry was posted in Chess and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Win Probabilities After Game 1

  1. Pingback: An Alternate Chess Model | Analytic Minds

  2. Pingback: Hva er sannsynligheten for at Magnus Carlsen forblir verdensmester? | Analytic Minds

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s