Game 1 of the World Chess Championships ended in a draw. What does that have to say for the each player’s win chances? Not much. The chances of a tie-break has increased, and it’s more likely that the game will last longer, but otherwise it remains the same. Before the game Magnus Carlsen’s probability of winning was 83.6%, now it is 82.6%.
For this simulation, we have not changed the initial assumptions. That means that we haven’t adjusted for the new live rating, nor for the fact that Magnus Carlsen now has 6 games with white against Anand’s 5.