Win Probabilities After Game 1

Game 1 of the World Chess Championships ended in a draw. What does that have to say for the each player’s win chances? Not much. The chances of a tie-break has increased, and it’s more likely that the game will last longer, but otherwise it remains the same. Before the game Magnus Carlsen’s probability of winning was 83.6%, now it is 82.6%.

Expected match win following the draw in game 1.

For this simulation, we have not changed the initial assumptions. That means that we haven’t adjusted for the new live rating, nor for the fact that Magnus Carlsen now has 6 games with white against Anand’s 5.