Magnus Carlsen wins Game 2, which gives him an even bigger chance of winning the match. Depending on which model we use, his chances of winning are now 91.0% using ratings only, and 83.2% using the adjusted model. The likely outcomes are as follows:
Expected match win following game 2 using the ratings only model.
Expected match win following game 2 using the adjusted model.
It’s safe to say that Magnus Carlsen has a good grip of the match, already being up 1.5 – 0.5 after the first two games.
| Rating model | Adjusted model | |
| Carlsen win | 87.3% | 77.3% |
| Anand win | 7.3% | 11.7% |
| Tie-break | 5.4% | 11.0% |
Analytic Minds 
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