Win Probabilities After Game 2

Magnus Carlsen wins Game 2, which gives him an even bigger chance of winning the match. Depending on which model we use, his chances of winning are now 91.0% using ratings only, and 83.2% using the adjusted model. The likely outcomes are as follows:

Expected match win following game 2 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 2 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 2 using the adjusted model.

Expected match win following game 2 using the adjusted model.

It’s safe to say that Magnus Carlsen has a good grip of the match, already being up 1.5 – 0.5 after the first two games.

Rating model Adjusted model
Carlsen win 87.3% 77.3%
Anand win 7.3% 11.7%
Tie-break 5.4% 11.0%
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3 Responses to Win Probabilities After Game 2

  1. Pingback: Win Probabilities After Game 3 | Analytic Minds

  2. Pingback: Hva er sannsynligheten for at Magnus Carlsen forblir verdensmester? | Analytic Minds

  3. Pingback: Win Probabilities After Game 6 | Analytic Minds

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