Win Probabilities After Game 3

Viswanathan Anand strikes back immediately to win Game 3, which puts him back in the match. Depending on which model we use, his chances of winning increased to 20.3% using ratings only, and 31.3% using the adjusted model. So he is still very much the underdog, but has stopped the bleeding infected by Magnus Carlsen in Game 2. The probable outcomes are as follows:

Expected match win following game 3 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 3 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 3 using the adjusted model.

Expected match win following game 3 using the adjusted model.

Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite, but it seems increasingly likely that he will have to fight it out to game 11 or 12.

Rating model Adjusted model
Carlsen win 73.0% 59.2%
Anand win 13.6% 21.8%
Tie-break 13.4% 19.0%

This is similar to the probabilities after Game 1, but with a shift of 4-5 percentage points from Magnus Carlsen toward a tie break and Anand. This makes sense since the match is tied again, and since Carlsen is the favorite his probability of winning goes slightly down with each game that he fails to get ahead. But he is still favored by both models, and he still has one more white game than Anand does. And comparing with last year, the score is the same after three games as it was then. But what will happen now that Anand knows he can beat Carlsen? The model doesn’t tell us anything about that, we will just have to watch and see.

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2 Responses to Win Probabilities After Game 3

  1. Pingback: Hva er sannsynligheten for at Magnus Carlsen forblir verdensmester? | Analytic Minds

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