Another draw today in Game 4, which doesn’t change the overall picture much at all. Carlsen is still the favorite, at 79.2% using ratings only, and 66.0% when using the adjusted model. The probable outcomes are as follows:
Expected match win following game 4 using the ratings only model.
Expected match win following game 4 using the adjusted model.
Again, this isn’t much of a change, but makes it more and more likely that it will be decided late in the match. And for each game that Carlsen doesn’t gain an advantage, Anand’s chances improve.
| Rating model | Adjusted model | |
| Carlsen win | 72.2% | 56.4% |
| Anand win | 13.7% | 24.3% |
| Tie-break | 14.1% | 19.3% |
Tomorrow is a rest day, then it’s on again on Friday.
Analytic Minds 
Reblogged this on Chess Musings.