Win Probabilities After Game 5

Another draw after Game 5 and we are still tied when nearing half way through the match. Carlsen is still the favorite, and now has two white games in a row. Which he should probably convert. Carlsen is at 77.0% to win it using ratings only, and at 67.2% using the adjusted model.

Expected match win following game 5 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 5 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 5 using the adjusted model.

Expected match win following game 5 using the adjusted model.

Still very similar to after last game, with an ever increasing chance of a tie break. The breakdown is as follows:

Rating model Adjusted model
Carlsen win 69.3% 56.5%
Anand win 15.3% 22.1%
Tie-break 15.4% 21.4%

Today is the first of two white games in a row for Magnus Carlsen, and using the adjusted model, his chance of scoring more than 1 point is 42.3%, there is a 41.1% chance that they will split the points, and 16.6% chance that Anand will score more than 1 point. So this is a crucial moment in the match.

Norsk forklaring av utregningene.

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