Another draw after Game 5 and we are still tied when nearing half way through the match. Carlsen is still the favorite, and now has two white games in a row. Which he should probably convert. Carlsen is at 77.0% to win it using ratings only, and at 67.2% using the adjusted model.
Expected match win following game 5 using the ratings only model.
Expected match win following game 5 using the adjusted model.
Still very similar to after last game, with an ever increasing chance of a tie break. The breakdown is as follows:
| Rating model | Adjusted model | |
| Carlsen win | 69.3% | 56.5% |
| Anand win | 15.3% | 22.1% |
| Tie-break | 15.4% | 21.4% |
Today is the first of two white games in a row for Magnus Carlsen, and using the adjusted model, his chance of scoring more than 1 point is 42.3%, there is a 41.1% chance that they will split the points, and 16.6% chance that Anand will score more than 1 point. So this is a crucial moment in the match.
Analytic Minds 