Win Probabilities After Game 6

We are now half way, and Magnus Carlsen managed to get into the lead after a win in Game 6 that was not without drama. This increased his probability of winning the match to 89.7% using the ratings only model, and to 83.6% using the adjusted model. This is similar to what it was after Carlsen’s win in Game 2, and the current match win distributions are as follows:

Expected match win following game 6 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 6 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 6 using the adjusted model.

Expected match win following game 6 using the adjusted model.

As we can see, Magnus Carlsen now has a very good grip on the game, and a lot of Vishy Anand’s chances lie in forcing a tie-break. It is now most likely that Magnus Carlsen will win the match in Game 11. Now they are half-way and Carlsen has another game with white coming up. If he can manage to win that too, he should be in very good shape.

Rating model Adjusted model
Carlsen win 84.9% 76.2%
Anand win 5.6% 9.0%
Tie-break 9.6% 14.8%

Norsk forklaring av utregningene.

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