We are now half way, and Magnus Carlsen managed to get into the lead after a win in Game 6 that was not without drama. This increased his probability of winning the match to 89.7% using the ratings only model, and to 83.6% using the adjusted model. This is similar to what it was after Carlsen’s win in Game 2, and the current match win distributions are as follows:
Expected match win following game 6 using the ratings only model.
Expected match win following game 6 using the adjusted model.
As we can see, Magnus Carlsen now has a very good grip on the game, and a lot of Vishy Anand’s chances lie in forcing a tie-break. It is now most likely that Magnus Carlsen will win the match in Game 11. Now they are half-way and Carlsen has another game with white coming up. If he can manage to win that too, he should be in very good shape.
| Rating model | Adjusted model | |
| Carlsen win | 84.9% | 76.2% |
| Anand win | 5.6% | 9.0% |
| Tie-break | 9.6% | 14.8% |
Analytic Minds 
Reblogged this on Chess Musings.