A very long game today eventually ended in a draw. That doesn’t change the winning chances a lot, Magnus Carlsen now has an 89.4% chance of winning using the ratings only model, and an 82.8% chance using the adjusted model. The new expected match win distributions are as follows:
Expected match win following game 7 using the ratings only model.
Expected match win following game 7 using the adjusted model.
What this reveals though, is that Viswanathan Anand is now at the point where his win chance stems as much from forcing a tie-break as from winning outright. Both models give the players an even chance of winning a tie-break, which is one reason he has such a good chance from that. Both models find it most likely that Carlsen will win the match in Game 11.
| Rating model | Adjusted model | |
| Carlsen win | 84.0% | 74.5% |
| Anand win | 5.1% | 8.9% |
| Tie-break | 10.9% | 16.6% |
Analytic Minds 
Reblogged this on Chess Musings.