Win Probabilities After Game 7

A very long game today eventually ended in a draw. That doesn’t change the winning chances a lot, Magnus Carlsen now has an 89.4% chance of winning using the ratings only model, and an 82.8% chance using the adjusted model. The new expected match win distributions are as follows:

Expected match win following game 7 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 7 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 7 using the adjusted model.

Expected match win following game 7 using the adjusted model.

What this reveals though, is that Viswanathan Anand is now at the point where his win chance stems as much from forcing a tie-break as from winning outright. Both models give the players an even chance of winning a tie-break, which is one reason he has such a good chance from that. Both models find it most likely that Carlsen will win the match in Game 11.

Rating model Adjusted model
Carlsen win 84.0% 74.5%
Anand win 5.1% 8.9%
Tie-break 10.9% 16.6%

Norsk forklaring av utregningene.

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