Another draw today, which doesn’t change much at all. Magnus Carlsen now has an 89.0% chance according to the ratings only model, and an 84.7% chance according to the adjusted model.
Expected match win following game 8 using the ratings only model.
Expected match win following game 8 using the adjusted model.
Now both models show that the majority of Anand’s chance of winning lies in forcing a tie-break, where both models assume he has a 50/50 shot at winning.
| Rating model | Adjusted model | |
| Carlsen win | 82.8% | 76.0% |
| Anand win | 4.8% | 6.7% |
| Tie-break | 12.4% | 17.3% |
Analytic Minds 