Win Probabilities After Game 8

Another draw today, which doesn’t change much at all. Magnus Carlsen now has an 89.0% chance according to the ratings only model, and an 84.7% chance according to the adjusted model.

Expected match win following game 8 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 8 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 8 using the adjusted model.

Expected match win following game 8 using the adjusted model.

Now both models show that the majority of Anand’s chance of winning lies in forcing a tie-break, where both models assume he has a 50/50 shot at winning.

Rating model Adjusted model
Carlsen win 82.8% 76.0%
Anand win 4.8% 6.7%
Tie-break 12.4% 17.3%

Norsk forklaring av utregningene.

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