Win Chances of Grenke Chess Classic After Round 2

Magnus Carlsen won against Michael Adams, while all other games ended in draws. This means that Carlsen has taken an early lead in the tournament. His chance of winning the tournament has now increased to 34.6% in our model. Listed below are the likelihoods for each outcome, with original chance outlined in blue and first round in yellow:

Probability distribution of win chances following the second round.

Probability distribution of win chances following the second round.

As can be seen, everyone’s chances decreased in favor of Magnus Carlsen, which makes sense. The distribution of expected points show him quite far ahead of the pack, with Adams joining Baramidze a bit behind.

Each player's distribution of expected points following Round 2.

Each player’s distribution of expected points following Round 2.

This is also evident in the central tendencies, with Magnus Carlsen increasing while Adams decreasing:

Player Mean Median Mode
Carlsen 4,38 4,5 4,5
Caruana 3,62 3,5 3,5
Anand 3,52 3,5 3,5
Aronian 3,53 3,5 3,5
Adams 3,05 3 3
Bacrot 3,40 3,5 3,5
Naiditsch 3,50 3,5 3,5
Baramidze 2,99 3 3

Carlsen’s chance of continuing his streak as either number one or two in the tournament has also increased, and he is now at 73% probability of continuing his streak. In Round 3 he plays Naiditsch with black, and here are the probabilities for this round:

White Black White wins Draw Black wins
Bacrot Anand 24.1 % 52.7 % 23.2 %
Aronian Caruana 24.4 % 53.6 % 22.0 %
Adams Baramidze 37.8 % 47.8 % 14.5 %
Naiditsch Carlsen 24.0 % 43.3 % 32.7 %
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2 Responses to Win Chances of Grenke Chess Classic After Round 2

  1. Pingback: Predicting the Grenke Chess Classic | Analytic Minds

  2. Pingback: Win Chances of Grenke Chess Classic After Round 3 | Analytic Minds

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