Win Chances of Grenke Chess Classic After Round 6

A lot of drawn games in Round 6, with Anand beating Baramidze as the only decisive game ensuring that Baramidze ends last. Carlsen and Naiditsch are still in the lead, half a point ahead of Caruana. According to the model, Carlsen is favored just ahead of a 2 player draw. Listed below is the current win chances of the tournament, with the original chances outlined in blue and the win chance after the previous round in yellow.

Probability distribution of win chances following the fifth round.

Caruana still has some chances left of winning outright, but the most likely outcome is some sort of tie breaks. About 41.5 % is the probability of a tie break, with one of the outcomes being a tie break with SIX players. That happens if Bacrot beats Carlsen, Caruana draws Baramidze, Aronian beats Naiditsch and Adams beats Anand. Unlikely, but possible. It’s one of 81 possible permutations, but the model “only” assigns a 0.3 % chance of it happening instead of 1.2 %.

Magnus Carlsen is involved in almost all of the possible tie-breaks, except for 2.44 % of the time when Naiditsch and Caruana score 4.5 points each. That means that Carlsen’s chance of placing first or second is currently at 95.8 % of the time, 34.7 % of winning alone, 39 % of being in a tie-break, and 22.1 % as number two behind either Naiditsch or Caruana.

The model uses the following probabilities for Round 7:

White	Black	White wins	Draw	Black wins
Adams	Anand	23.1 %	56.5 %	20.4 %
Naiditsch	Aronian	29.1 %	47.4 %	23.5 %
Carlsen	Bacrot	39.9 %	44.2 %	15.9 %
Baramidze	Caruana	21.6 %	43.1 %	35.3 %

So Carlsen the favorite to decided it all, but Round 7 should be exciting.