Win Chances of Grenke Chess Classic After Round 4

We’ve passed the half-way point in the Grenke Chess Classic. Naiditsch won his second game in a row while Carlsen did what he so often does after a loss, he won the following game. Caruana tied his game, and those three are now well ahead of the others in win chances, with Naiditsch at 3 points and Carlsen and Caruana at 2.5 each. Both Naiditsch and Carlsen improved their win chances a lot according to the model. Listed below is the current win chances of the tournament, with the original chances outlined in blue and the win chance after the previous round in yellow.

Probability distribution of win chances following the fourth round.

Caruana’s chances dropped quite a bit from Round 3, while Carlsen’s chances are back to his original. Naiditisch is looking strong and is the sole winner in one of three cases. He’s also one of the players in the tie-break most of the time, so his overall probability of winning is just above 50%. At the other end of the scale, Baramidze no longer has any chance of winning outright, while Aronian and Anand’s chances are mostly theoretical at this point. Bacrot and Adams are slightly more favored, but this is increasingly looking like a fight between Naiditsch, Carlsen and Caruana.

Looking at each player’s averages, we see the same tendency. Naiditsch and Carlsen in front, with Caruana just behind, while the rest are well below.

Player	Mean	Median	Mode
Naiditsch	4,49	4,5	4,5
Carlsen	4,30	4,5	4,5
Caruana	4,05	4	4
Adams	3,52	3,5	3,5
Bacrot	3,36	3,5	3,5
Anand	3,08	3	3
Aronian	3,04	3	3
Baramidze	2,16	2	2

While the point distribution has been a bit cluttered before, it is now starting to spread out a bit.

Each player’s distribution of expected points following Round 4.

Both Naiditsch and Carlsen have to games with white remaining, while Caruana’s sole white game is against Carlsen. It is interesting to note that Caruana’s next two games are against Naiditsch and Carlsen, and a lot can be decided there. If he manages to win both of those games, which our model gives him a 6.7% probability of doing, he should be in a very good spot for the tournament victory.

Looking at Magnus Carlsen’s chances of continuing his streak, the model now has him in one of the top two spots 72% of the time, with 41% as the winner (either outright or in a tie-break) and 31% as number 2.

Today’s games in Round 5 could have a very big impact. Naiditsch and Caruana play each other, while Carlsen plays last-placed Baramidze who has lost his last two games. Here is the model’s prediction:

White	Black	White wins	Draw	Black wins
Aronian	Anand	23.3 %	57.6 %	19.1 %
Adams	Bacrot	28.5 %	53.3 %	18.1 %
Naiditsch	Caruana	28.5 %	43.4 %	28.1 %
Carlsen	Baramidze	48.0 %	38.9 %	13.1 %

If Carlsen wins his game and Caruana beats Naiditsch, a 13.5% chance, this should be a thriller ending. They will then be tied in the lead at 3.5 points when they play each other, with Naiditsch just behind. Today’s games should be very interesting, and I am looking forward to more action at the table.